The Second Spot

As we are now only a week until July, it’s time to serioiusly start thinking about when candidates will choose their running mate.

First, a brief history:

• In 2004, Kerry announced Edwards has his VP on July 6th. The Democratic Convention started July 26th, so Kerry picked his nearly 3 weeks in advance.
• In 2000, Bush picked Cheney on July 24th while Gore picked Liebmerman on August 8th.  The Republican Convention started July 31st while the Democratic Convention started August 14th, so both candidates basically waited as long as they possibly could before choosing.
• In 1996, Dole picked Kemp on August 10th.  Their convention started August 12th that year so that was really cutting it close.  I should note, though, that the summer Olympics were held from July 19th to August 9th, which made the timing awkward for Dole.
• In 1992, Clinton picked Gore on July 9th, and their convention was held July 13th.

So what do we see?  First off, the biggest gap between choosing a VP and a party’s convention was 20 days for Kerry in 2004.  Otherwise the gaps were 7 days, 6 days, 2 days, and 4 days, going back through 1992.  Basically, the selection for VP was supposed to be a big boost and attention getter for the candidate in the week leading into their party’s national convention.

However, things will almost certainly be different this year.  To start with, the Olympics run from August 8th through the 24th, the Democratic Convention goes from August 25th through the 28th while the GOP convention runs from September 1st through September 4th.

This means that Obama will have to choose a running mate by no later than August 8th, and will probably want to do it no later than the first couple of days in August so that any bump he gets form choosing a VP isn’t trampled by the Olympics.

McCain has a little bit more leeway, but not much.  It would be feasiable that he could choose a VP between August 29th and August 31st.  However, those days are Friday, Saturday, and Sunday – days which I would think would be unfavorable for picking a VP (the days for announcing a VP above were all Tuesdays in 2000 and 2004, Saturday in 1996 [but like I said, Dole didn't have much wiggle room there], and a Thursday in 1992).

Tuesday seems like a logical choice as well since it gives you a maximum media boost while not doing it on a Monday, when people may still be hungover from the weekend.  That means August 5th may be a prime date for someone to announce their VP choice – the only Tuesday in August not taken up by either the Olympics or a convention.

Now, here is the catch: candidates always tend to like to be the last one to choose a running mate.  In the only example above where we didn’t have an incumbent running, Gore chose his last, largely because Bush had to choose his before the GOP convention.  In this sense, normally the party with the later convention chooses their VP second because the candidate who has their convention first is forced to choose theirs first, unless the other candidate just feels like announcing first.

However, that dynamic is upset this year because the conventions are one week after the other, so there is really no time for McCain to name is VP between conventions, plus we have the Olympics for the two weeks before the conventions as well.  This may lead to a game of chicken between McCain and Obama to see who can wait the absolute longest before having to announce, lest they either get trapped by the Olympics or risk stepping on the other’s announcement.

This means that when the candidates choose their VP may actually become an issue this year.  By the start of July, McCain will have had 4 months to look at VPs.  By the start of August, he will have had 5 months.  Obama is going to get a total of 9 weeks if you take out the weeks the Olympics are being held.

I wouldn’t be surprised if, come mid-July, we start hearing some noises from the Obama camp that McCain “can’t decide” and is “indecisive” on his VP choice, and if he can’t even come up with a VP choice in 4 1/2 months, then how can we trust him to make quick decisions in the White House?  The point to this would be, of course, to try to politically force McCain to choose his VP first, allowing Obama to go second and choose his, presumably, in the first week of August.

However, if it comes down to a game of chicken, Obama may feel that he has the advantage since he has the moral argument (I’ve had 9 weeks while you’ve had 5 months) and he may feel that he can afford having his VP selection bounce get stomped by the Olympics more than McCain can.