Here is the map for July 8th. Notes are below (click map for bigger version):
Numbers:
- Official count: Obama 255, McCain 157, Too Close to Call 126
- Strong states only: Obama 204, McCain 80
- Weak states only: McCain 77, Obama 51
- Count with “leaners”: Obama 320, McCain 218
- Weeks until the Democratic Convention: 7 weeks
- Weeks until the Republican Convention: 8 weeks
- Weeks until Election Day: 17 weeks
All states with change of status
- Connecticut – Too Close To Call to Strong Obama
- Louisiana – Weak McCain to Strong McCain
- Montana – Weak McCain to Weak Obama
All states with some sort of change this week
- Connecticut – new polls July 2 (x2) & July 3
- Florida – new polls July 1 & July 2
- Georgia – new poll July 2 & July 3
- Louisiana – new poll July 1
- Massachusetts – new poll July 1
- Montana – new poll July 3
- New York – new poll July 1
- North Carolina – new poll July 1
- Rhode Island – new polls July 3 & July 7
- Washington – new poll July 7
Also, see the spreadsheet.
This past week was a relatively light polling week, probably because of the 4th of July, but we saw some interesting movement.
Connecticut finally got a poll. And not just one, but three, all showing Obama with huge leads in the state. That easily moved Connecticut from “Too Close to Call” to “Strong Obama,” just like I expected to happen when we got a new poll in that state. Suddenly the northeast is looking very, very blue.
We had two new polls in Rhode Island, a state which hadn’t ben polled since February, just re-confirming what we already assumed: Obama is way ahead there.
McCain finally got a state on his side to change status in his favor this week, with Louisiana moving from “Weak McCain” to “Strong McCain.” This is the first time that a state on McCain’s side has actually switched upward since I started this on June 10th (We have had Oregon, Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico switch down, but they were all either on Obama’s side, or went from Obama to “Too Close To Call,” but still leaned Obama).
The big surprise of the week is reserved for Montana, however, where a new poll there shows Obama ahead by 5, moving the state from “Weak McCain” to “Weak Obama.” Now, the caveat on this is that, since this is the only recent poll in the state, it is the only poll being used, so it would be highly preferable to have a send poll confirm this finding. However, in any case it shows that Montana may seriously be in play this year.
Overall, this is yet again another good week for Obama. Obama has gained 10 more Electoral Votes this week in the official count to move himself up to 255 Electoral Votes – only 15 away from the 270 needed. Meanwhile, McCain lost his 3 Montana Electoral Votes to drop down to 157 Electoral Votes, and is now on the verge of having a triple-digit deficit to Obama. Obama also increased his total with leaners to 320-218. 126 Electoral Votes remain “Too Close To Call,” including 6 states with a double-digit number of Electoral Votes, with 3 leaning towards each candidate.
The poll in Montana also now begs that a poll be run in the surrounding states as well, such as Idaho, South Dakota, Wyoming, and especially North Dakota, since North Dakota was, like Montana, within 10% when it was last polled in April (Idaho is +13%, but hasn’t been polled since February, South Dakota is +17% but hasn’t been polled since April, and Wyoming is +13% but hasn’t been polled in nearly 2 months).
Oh yeah, one thing I will try to do this week is go through to make sure I didn’t miss any polls. Typically pollster.com posts all of their new polls on their blog, but they’ve been kind of dropping the ball on that front over the past couple of weeks. It’s kind of annoying to go through every state every week to make sure some poll wasn’t posted that I didn’t know about, and I hope I don’t have to do that.
Historical Graph
Here is the historical graph updated for this week:
Obama’s increases still continue nearly linerally, which is kind of weird since you’d expect some variation in the number of Electoral Votes he gains on a weekly basis, but there you have it. If Obama continues at this pace, he should hit 270 Electoral Votes using only Strong and Weak states in about 2 weeks.
McCain’s curve seems to be flattening out some – something which I expect Obama’s to start doing. The reason for this is that Obama has already picked off the majority of low-hanging fruit, and most of what’s left should be more difficult to get.
I’m still waiting for the day when “Too Close To Call” passes McCain’s total, though. If Georgia would flip to “Too Close To Call,” then the two would be essentially tied.
Polling Wish List
Finally, my polling wish list for this week is:
- North Dakota (3rd week)
- Delaware (2nd week)
- Alaska
- Iowa
- Nevada
States which haven’t had a new poll in over a month:
DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Maryland, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming.
Sister states
These are states for each candidate where the margin in those states are within 1% of each other and are within 3 total electoral votes or 25% of electoral votes of the smaller state of each other.
- Colorado (Obama, 9 EVs, +3.6%) and Missouri (McCain, 11 EVs, +3.5%)
- Montana (Obama, 3 EVs, +5%) and Mississippi (McCain, 6 EVs, +6%)
- Montana (Obama, 3 EVs, +5%) and North Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +6%)
- Oregon (Obama, 7 EVs, +7.1%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8%)
- Delaware (Obama, 3 EVs, +9%)) and Kansas (McCain, 6 EVs, +10%)
- New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +10.6%) and Kansas (McCain, 6 EVs, +10%)
- Maryland (Obama, 10 EVs, +14%) and Tennessee (McCain, 11 EVs, +15%)
- Maryland (Obama, 10 EVs, +14%) and Oklahoma (McCain, 7 EVs, +14%)
- Minnesota (Obama, 10 EVs, +13.1%) and Oklahoma (McCain, 7 EVs, +14%)
- Rhode Island (Obama, 4 EVs, +15%) and Nebraska (McCain, 5 EVs, +16%)
- Connecticut (Obama, 7 EVs, +20.1%) and Kentucky (McCain, 8 EVs, +19.1%)
- Connecticut (Obama, 7 EVs, +20.1%) and Alabama (McCain, 9 EVs, +20.2%)
Electoral-vote.com Map
July 8, 2004: Kerry 291 (+39), Bush 247 (-39)
Changes by election day: Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
Today: Obama 320, McCain 218
Total with same EV shift as 2004: Obama 281, McCain 257
To see the current status, go to the Status of the Electoral College page.
