Darth McCain

This is brutal:

Sen. John McCain, American war hero and admired political maverick, as well as presumed Republican nominee for president, had a message for Elisabeth Bumiller, the venerated New York Times reporter, along with the rest of the media assigned to travel with him the week of July 20.

“What do you want, you little jerks?” McCain said to Bumiller and those behind her, as the press surged forward on the “Straight Talk” Boeing 737 on July 21.

No one ever accused the Arizona senator of not being blunt. But he had come a long way from the media-friendly, boyishly charming, brazenly honest, free-wheeling McCain that so many in the media had come to love during the 2000 Republican primary. That man was now gone. Vanished.

…

It’s hard to believe that McCain was championed in 2000 as the man who could bring balance to the Republican Party, not plunge it into further darkness. He had entered the 2008 Republican race as its front-runner, as the man who stood up to George W. Bush and the party’s more extreme elements. In the 2000 campaign, McCain had repudiated Bush’s visit to Bob Jones University in South Carolina and called out the late Jerry Falwell as one of the “agents of intolerance.” He had apologized for not taking a firm stand against the Confederate flag flying high above the South Carolina capitol dome and continued to press for bi-partisan efforts like comprehensive immigration reform, including some path to citizenship for the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in the United States.

But most of that was before McCain’s apparent slide into the dark side.

There’s a lot more.  Basically it’s a confirmation of McCain’s well known anger problem.

The Hill agrees.

If McCain already thinks he’s getting bad coverage, I’m not sure how he expects to get better coverage by bashing on the press, unless he thinks that they’ll kneel in front of him and kiss is fingers to get back on his good side (which, sadly, wouldn’t shock me).

Buh-Bye Senator Stevens

I just hope they haven’t had their primaries in Alaska yet:

Senator Ted Stevens indicted on 7 criminal counts related to his holding of public office

Per Reuters breaking news.

Status of the Electoral College: July 29

Here is the map for July 29th. Notes are below (click map for bigger version):

Methodology

Numbers:

• Official count: Obama 243, McCain 154, Too Close to Call 141
• Strong states only: Obama 190, McCain 81
• Weak states only: McCain 73, Obama 53
• Count with “leaners”: Obama 294, McCain 244

• Weeks until the Democratic Convention: 4 weeks
• Weeks until the Republican Convention: 5 weeks
• Weeks until Election Day: 14 weeks

All states with change of status:

• Maine – Weak Obama to Strong Obama
• Michigan – Weak Obama to Too Close To Call
• Minnesota – Strong Obama to Weak Obama
• New Jersey – Weak Obama to Strong Obama
• Ohio – Weak Obama to Too Close To Call
• South Carolina – Weak McCain to Strong McCain

All states with new polling this week:

• California – new poll July 24th
• Colorado – new polls July 21st, July 14th-22nd, & July 16th-22nd.
• Florida – new polls July 19th-21st & July 22nd
• Maine – new poll June 1st-27th (yes, you see that right, the poll is a month old)
• Michigan – new polls July 13th-15th & July 14th-22nd
• Minnesota – new polls July 22nd & July 14th-22nd
• Mississippi – new poll July 21st-23rd
• New Hampshire – new polls July 19th-21st & July 23rd
• New Jersey – new poll July 17th-21st
• New Mexico – new poll July 24th
• North Dakota – new poll July 21st-23rd
• Ohio – new poll July 21st
• Pennsylvania – new poll July 23rd
• South Carolina – new poll July 22nd-23rd

Also, see the spreadsheet.

This Week’s Notes

This is the first week showing a real drop in Obama’s number.  However, this week was more bad for Obama than it was good for McCain.

The first reason for this is that, despite Obama’s losses (which I’ll get into in a moment), McCain’s numbers have remained essentially static.  Indeed, the only movement within McCain’s official count was South Carolina moving from Weak McCain to Strong McCain.  However, McCain’s total stands unchanged at 154.  Even with the methodological shift, his total has remained largely unchanged since the start of July (his max was 160 and minimum was 151 this month).

Indeed, all the movement has been on Obama’s side this week.  The three biggest shifts were three swing states shifting downward.

First, and perhaps most importantly, is Ohio, which went from Weak Obama to Too Close To Call.  Indeed, it shifted so much that it now sits as a McCain leaner, though only by about the slimmest margin possible (it’s about as close to being tied as one can get without being tied).  This is thanks to a new poll released this week showing McCain 10% ahead in Ohio.  A poll had been conducted the day before showing Obama 8% ahead, but since those were the first new polls in a month, it largely came down to an average between the two, and McCain won.

Second, there is Michigan, which also fell from Weak Obama to Too Close to Call thanks to a total of two polls in the last two weeks showing Obama ahead by 2% and 4% there.  However, Michigan is still a solid lean Obama state (if you can have a solid lean state).

Finally, Minnesota dropped from Strong Obama to Weak Obama, but again sits right on the borderline and is, indeed, Obama’s strongest “Weak” state.

It wasn’t all bad for Obama, however.  A new Maine poll, even though it was a month old, pushed Maine back from Weak Obama to Strong Obama, while a new New Jersey poll did the same thing for that state.

Nevertheless, having a net 29 Electoral Votes drop, with 37 dropping out of your count in one week can be a little disconcerting.  We’ll have to see if this is just the final corrections from Obama’s nomination bounce in those states or whether it is a sign of something bigger.  We’ll probably have to wait a couple weeks to know for sure.

Despite all of this, Obama still remains in good position, leading McCain 243-154 with a record 141 electoral votes in the Too Close To Call category, and an amazing 71 Electoral Votes within 1%.  The count with leaners is Obama 294 to McCain’s 244 which is Obama’s first time under 300 since June 24th (though again, I did switch my methodology since then).  This is also McCain’s highest total since that date.

Looking at the more detailed breakdown, the only real changes were in the Weak Obama category and the Too Close To Call category, with Ohio and Michigan dropping.  Indeed, both McCain categories and the Strong Obama category remained largely unchanged, leaving Obama with a 190 to 81 lead over McCain among strong states.

Historical Graph

Click for bigger version:

Not many data point since my change of methodology, but you can see that, despite Obama’s drop this week, he’s still in good shape over McCain.

Polling Wish List

Finally, my polling wish list for this week is:

• Delaware (4th week) – Weak Obama, no poll for 152 days
• Idaho (3rd week) – Strong McCain, no poll for 152 days
• Indiana (2nd week) – Too Close To Call, no poll for 36 days
• Montana – Too Close To Call, no polls for 28 days
• West Virginia (2nd week) – Weak McCain, no poll for 57 days

On Deck: Arizona, Maryland, South Dakota, Texas, Wyoming

States which haven’t had a new poll in over a month:

Alabama, Arizona, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming.

Sister states

These are states for each candidate where the margin in those states are within 1% of each other and are within 3 total electoral votes or 33% of electoral votes of the smaller state of each other.

• Colorado (Obama, 9 EVs, +1.3%) and Indiana (McCain, 11 EVs, +0.8%)
• Colorado (Obama, 9 EVs, +1.3%) and Missouri (McCain, 11 EVs, +1.4%)
• New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +3.3%) and North Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +2.3%)
• New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +3.3%) and South Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +4.2%)
• Michigan (Obama, 17 EVs, +4.2%) and North Carolina (McCain, 15 EVs, +4.1%)
• Montana (Obama, 3 EVs, +4.8%) and South Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +4.2%)
• Iowa (Obama, 7 EV,s +8.8%) and Mississippi (McCain, 6 EVs, +8.8%)
• Iowa (Obama, 7 EVs, +8.8%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Delaware (Obama, 3 EVs, +9%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Oregon (Obama, 7 EVs, +8.4%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Oregon (Obama, 7 EVs, +8.4%) and Arizona (McCain, 10 EVs, +9.4%)
• Oregon (Obama, 7 EVs, +8.4%) and Mississippi (McCain, 6 EVs, +8.8%)
• Minnesota (Obama, 10 EVs, +9.5%) and Arizona (McCain, 10 EVs, +9.4%)
• Delaware (Obama, 3 EVs, +9.0) and Mississippi (McCain, 6 EVs, +8.8%)
• Wisconsin (Obama, 10 EVs, 10.4%) and Arizona (McCain, 10 EVs, +9.4%)
• Wisconsin (Obama, 10 EVs, 10.4%) and South Carolina (McCain, 8 EVs, +10.9%)
• Maine (Obama, 4 EVs, +11.1%) and Arkansas (McCain, 6 EVs, +10.5%)

Electoral-vote.com Map

July 29, 2004: Kerry 291 (+39), Bush 237 (-49), Tied 10 (+10)
Changes by election day: Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota (tie) Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Tennessee

Today: Obama 292, McCain 195, Tied 51
Total with same EV shift as 2004: McCain 295, Obama 243 (all 51 tied go to McCain)

To see the current status, go to the Status of the Electoral College page.

Cross posted at Daily Kos