Here is the map for August 12th. Notes are below (click map for bigger version):
Numbers:
- Official count: Obama 243, McCain 154, Too Close to Call 141
- Strong states only: Obama 180, McCain 97
- Weak states only: Obama 63, McCain 57
- Count with “leaners”: Obama 314, McCain 224
- Weeks until the Democratic Convention: 2 weeks
- Weeks until the Republican Convention: 3 weeks
- Weeks until Election Day: 12 weeks
All states with change of status:
- Wisconsin – From Strong Obama to Weak Obama
All states with new polling this week:
- Alabama – new poll July 29th-August 4th
- Colorado – new poll August 5th-7th
- Florida – new poll July 30th-August 2nd
- Iowa – new poll August 7th
- Massachusetts – new poll August 5th
- Michigan – new poll August 7th
- Missouri – new poll August 7th
- New Jersey – new polls, July 31st-August4th & August 4th
- New York – new poll August 4th
- Oregons – new poll August 2nd-4th & August 7th
- Virginia – new poll August 8th-10th
- Washington – new polls July 27th-31st & August 6th
- Wisconsin – new polls August 3rd-4th & August 5th
Also, see the spreadsheet.
This Week’s Notes
This week appears to be another status quo week, even though only one candidate’s states were polled this week.
Obama had 7 Weak or Strong states polled and an additional 3 lean states polled this week, however the only change was two polls showing that Wisconsin has slipped from a Strong Obama state to a middle-of-the-pack Weak Obama state.
The state with the most variation this week was Oregon, which had two polls released: one showing only a 3% lead and one showing a 10% lead. Those two polls averaged to keep Oregon in the Weak Obama category.
Otherwise, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York all remained Strong Obama, Iowa remained Weak Obama, and Colorado, Michigan, and Virginia all stayed on Obama’s side of the Too Close To Call category.
On the other hand, McCain only had 3 of this states polled – only one was either a week or strong state: Alabama. The other two were Missouri and Florida. There were no changes in any of those states, though Missouri is now on the verge of becoming a Weak McCain state.
Even though virtually all the numbers – both the official count and the count with leaners – stayed the same, this week can be considered a marginal win this week for Obama considering McCain’s fervant attacks against him and the fact that virtually all states polled this week were Obama states, and yet the status quo was kept.
We do see some slight tightening in some states, but not enough to create a change of status in most, and some of it could be float in the margin of error of polls as well.
In the end, the official count remains the same for the 3rd consecutive week at Obama 243, McCain 154, Too Close To Call 141, while the count with leaners remains the same for the 2nd consecutive week at Obama 314, McCain 224.
Historical Graph
Click for bigger version:
After the final nomination bounce corrections took place in late July, the race has remained remarkably static. It may end up remaining this way until the Vice Presidential announcements or even the national conventions.
Polling Wish List
Finally, my polling wish list for this week is:
- Delaware (6th week) – Weak Obama, no poll for 166 days
- Indiana (4th week) – Too Close To Call, no poll for 50 days
- South Dakota (2nd week) – Too Close to Call, no poll for 34 days
- West Virginia (4th week) – Weak McCain, no poll for 71 days
- Wyoming (2nd week) – Strong McCain, no poll for 90 days
On Deck: Illinois, Maryland, Nevada, Oklahoma, Tennessee
States which haven’t had a new poll in over a month:
DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming.
Sister states
These are states for each candidate where the margin in those states are within 1% of each other and are within 3 total electoral votes or 33% of electoral votes of the smaller state of each other.
- Virginia (Obama, 13 EVs, +0.6%) and Indiana (McCain, 11 EVs, +0.8%)
- New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +3.3%) and North Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +2.3%)
- New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +3.3%) and South Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +4.2%)
- Michigan (Obama, 17 EVs, +3.8%) and North Carolina (McCain, 15 EVs, +3.7%)
- Delaware (Obama, 3 EVs, +9%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
- Maine (Obama, 4 EVs, +11.1%) and Mississippi (McCain, 6 EVs, +10.4%)
- Maine (Obama, 4 EVs, +11.1%) and Arkansas (McCain, 6 EVs, +10.5%)
- Washington (Obama, 11 EVs, +11.9%) and South Carolina (McCain, 8 EVs, +10.9%)
- Connecticut (Obama, 7 EVs, +14.4%) and Oklahoma (McCain, 7 EVs, +14.8%)
- Connecticut (Obama, 7 EVs, +14.4%) and Kentucky (McCain, 8 EVs, +15.4%)
Electoral-vote.com Map
August 12, 2004: Kerry 307 (+55), Bush 231 (-55)
Changes by election day: Florida, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, West Virginia
Today: Obama 289, McCain 249
Total with same EV shift as 2004: McCain 304, Obama 234
To see the current status, go to the Status of the Electoral College page.
