People are Stupid (and so are the people running Obama’s campaign, apparently)

The main mistake Kerry made in 2004, and which I’m afraid Obama is making in 2008, is the assumption that the American people are actually intelligent and think and don’t buy into obviously dumb things like “he didn’t deserve his medals” or “he’s just a big fluffed up celebrity.”

There should be no reason that being popular should be a negative at all when running for or being President (in fact, wouldn’t it be a good thing?) yet the American people seem to buy it hook, line, and sinker.

Of course, part of this is the fact that the media will lap up anything the GOP feeds it, which makes battling it that much harder, but you’ve seen about zero pushback by Obama on the celebrity issue, much like how you saw zero pushback on the swift boating issue by Kerry because he thought that people were smart enough to see it for what it was.

As was shown in 2004, no, the American people are stupid and gullible and will eat up anything fed them, no matter how stupid, and it seems that Obama hasn’t realized this yet.

Obama may have some grand plan on attacking McCain after the primaries, but the problem is that it’s looking like Obama will be doing so from a point equal to or even below McCain.

Then again, he’s been treating McCain with kid gloves like he’s some untouchable saint.  Unfortunately this “pointing out that McCain has bad positions” strategy clearly doesn’t seem to be working.  People obviously seem to care more that Obama has screaming fangirls than the fact that McCain would be the third term of the worst president in history (did I mention that people are stupid?).

Obama also doesn’t fight back against the claims about the surge, or offshore drilling, or anything else for that matter.  He attacks offshore drilling, not by saying how dumb it is, but by saying that oil people have donated to McCain.  While the apparent conflict of interest or tit-for-tat isn’t good, you still have to argue why McCain is wrong, and Obama isn’t doing that very well so far, or at least apparently not good enough.

I’ve generally kept a cool head because I’ve felt that having a slight lead is fine heading into the conventions and the debates since I believe that those will start setting Obama apart, but Obama has been falling and falling hard in the past 2 or 3 weeks.  I’m afraid that McCain will actually be ahead in my Electoral College Status – at least when counting leaners – for the first time ever next week given the recent polling.

Being 3% to 5% ahead is one thing, being down is another, and Kerry discovered that, even if you think you can make up ground in the debates – and he did – if you start from too far down, you just can’t make it up.

There is absolutely no reason why McCain should be supported by anyone but core Republicans.  He’s a flip-flopping fool who panders to whomever he needs to, and yet the American people and the media don’t seem to see this, and Obama hasn’t really pushed it.

All this, and the continued delay of Obama announcing his VP has really made me question the judgement of the people running his campaign.  I hope it’s the fact that they think they have a brilliant plan for the general and aren’t holding back due to overconfidence.

Another VP taken out?

Unless it’s a big (and unnecessary) headfake, scheduling Tim Kaine to speak on Thursday at the convention would seem to be the death nell of his VP chances.

Yes, speaking times can be rearranged, but given that Obama is anywhere from 5 hours to 4 days from announcing his VP, giving Kaine a speaking spot, just to give him the VP slot and having to reshuffle the schedule seems like overkill faking.

And given that Biden appears to have said that he’s out now, I’m sure a lot of media people are going to assume that Bayh is the guy, since they kept saying “Biden, Bayh, or Kaine” and it appears two of them are now out.

Or maybe not? Since Drudge rules everyone’s world, perhaps him bringing up Sebelius will start a storm of ponderance about her.  We’ve already had media hyperventilation about Kaine, Bayh, and Biden, but if Obama really is going to wait until Saturday to announce (a huge mistake in my opinion), then there is going to be no one to go nuts about in the next 3 or 4 days.  Sebelius may just do the trick.

And if this media going nuts is being controlled by “leaks” (see: fake inside info) from the campaign, whomever is last may be the winner.

I thought Sebelius was a serious contender a couple weeks ago, and then she vanished, but now that Biden appears to be out, Kaine appears to be out, and the media seems to be saying that people in the campaign have said that Bayh is out (assuming they’re not playing the media, of course), I’m not sure who is left except for Sebelius or someone no one has given serious consideration to.

In a sense, Sebelius is the best choice if Obama wants to shore up some weaknesses without obviously looking like he’s shoring up weaknesses.

Biden would be an obvious sign that he thinks that foreign policy is a weakness, which could allow McCain to go “see!”  Bayh has the same problem, as well as pissing off the base.

Kaine would be an obvious play to the state of Virginia, while someone like Clark, if he’s even still being considered, would also looke like a pander to national security issues.

Sebelius, however, has been governor of Kansas for 6 years, so you can’t really call the experience card on her without saying that a quite a few previous Presidents also weren’t ready when they took office.  Meanwhile, she has credibility with independents and conservatives, being a popular governor of a blood red state, while running a progressive enough of an administration to keep most base Democrats happy.  Except for making some fringe Clintonites angry for choosing a woman other than Hillary and perhaps name recognition, choosing Sebelius would seem to be all win.

We’ll see, I guess.

Update

Ambinder notes that instead of saying “he or she” in regards to his Vice President today, Obama just said “he.”

Of course, again, I’m not sure one can read into this too much.  If Obama has been very deliberate about saying “he or she” before and he didn’t here, it may have just been a blunder or it may have been calculated.  If it was calculated, there may be a good possibility that “he” may in fact be a “she.”  I’m guessing that’s what Ambinder might have been getting at with the quotes as well.

Update 2

On a second reading, Ambinder may be suggesting Bayh.

Stressing “I wont have my vice president engineering my foreign policy for me” could be seen as a sign of “yeah, Bayh was pro-war, but I’m still the boss,” and saying that his VP will be independent could also fit the bill for Bayh.

The problem with this is that I’m not sure how the rest of the stuff Ambinder italicized relates to Bayh.

Update 3

Apparently choice #2 was the case with Biden: he just hadn’t heard anything so was assuming he wasn’t the VP (or just noting that he isn’t currently the VP, so the media is still wasting their time).  That could still leave the door open for Biden.

Open Left thinks he back peddled because he realized he spilled some beans.  They also suggest it might be Hillary.  I don’t know.  I don’t see how he can pick Hillary unless the Clintons has come completely clean to him and Obama has figured out how to handle Bill, and I doubt the first item and I kind of think the second item is somewhat impossible.  I also don’t buy the “announcement in Virginia means Kaine” either.  Clinton, Gore, Dukakis, and George W. all introduced their VPs in their home states and I’m not sure Obama will be different on that count.  It’d be horror to wait through yet another day, but again, waiting until Thursday is bad enough, waiting past Thursday would be unfathomable to me.

I also don’t think Obama would take away our best senate race by “persuading” Warner to be on the ticket unless he felt he had no other choice.  I’d love Obama/Warner, but I doubt Obama would do that.

I still stand by what I said a couple weeks back: It’s Biden or Sebelius.