Status of the Electoral College: September 2

Here is the map for September 2nd. Notes are below (click map for bigger version):

Methodology

Animated Gif of Map Changes

Numbers:

• Official count: Obama 243, McCain 173, Too Close to Call 122
• Strong states only: Obama 180, McCain 87
• Weak states only: McCain 86, Obama 63
• Count with “leaners”: Obama 297, McCain 241

• 1st Presidential Debate: 24 days (9/26)
• Vice Presidential Debate: 30 days (10/2)
• 2nd Presidential Debate: 35 days (10/7)
• 3rd Presidential Debate: 43 days (10/15)
• Election Day: 63 days (11/4)

All states with change of status:

• New Mexico – Too Close To Call to Lean Obama
• Pennsylvania – Too Close To Call to Lean Obama

All states with new polling this week:

• California – new poll August 12th-19th
• Colorado – new polls August 23rd-24th & August 24th-26th
• Florida – new polls August 17th-24th, August 22nd-24th, & August 25th-26th
• Idaho – new poll August 18th-22nd
• Nevada – new poll August 24th-26th
• New Mexico – new poll August 24th-26th
• North Carolina – new poll August 20th-23rd
• Ohio – new poll August 17th-24th
• Pennsylvania – new polls August 17th-24th & August 24th-26th
• Rhode Island – new poll August 18th-20th

Also, see the spreadsheet.

This Week’s Notes

Barack Obama is already seeing some movement back in his direction, and this is even before the Democratic Convention is being taken into account in state polling (only the first day of the convention is being included in some states – Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania – and even then it’s only about 1/3 of the sample).  Also, state polling was fairly minimal this week, perhaps waiting until after the Democratic Convention was over before resuming polling.

Good polling in Pennsylvania and New Mexico has pushed both of those states back into the “Weak Obama” column, marking the first time Obama has increased his official total since July 22, when he hit his peak.  The gains this weak  have completely wiped away his losses in the official count from the previous two weeks, which were both good McCain weeks.

One thing that we haven’t been able to see due to lack of polling data is whether any of McCain’s weak states, such as Missouri or Indiana, are trying to trend back towards being Too Close To Call or not.  The only state in McCain’s official count that was polled this week is Idaho, which remains a strong McCain state.  As a result, McCain’s numbers remain steady this week.

Obama also gained in the count with leaners this week for the first time since August 5th with Nevada flipping from lean McCain to lean Obama.

Overall, Obama has a 70 Electoral Vote lead in the official count, 243 to 173 with 122 Too Close To Call (the lowest number since July 22) while Obama has a 56 Electoral Vote lead in the count with leaners, 297 to 241.  This is the third straight week where Obama has had fewer than 300 Electoral Votes counting leaners, tying the longest stretch set in the first 3 weeks that I tracked polls: June 10 – June 24th.

Historical Graph

Click for bigger version:

Obama gets a much needed halt to the bleeding as he bumps back up to where he was through most of August.  McCain remains steady due to lack of polling data on his states this week.

Polling Wish List

Finally, my polling wish list for this week is:

• Delaware (9th week) – Weak Obama, no poll for 186 days
• Montana (2nd week) – Too Close to Call, no poll for 34 days
• North Dakota (2nd week) – Too Close to Call, no poll for 40 days
• South Dakota (5th week) – Too Close to Call, no poll for 54 days
• West Virginia (7th week) – Weak McCain, no poll for 91 days

On Deck: Alaska, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina

States which haven’t had a new poll in over a month:

Arkansas, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia

Sister states

These are states for each candidate where the margin in those states are within 1% of each other and are within 3 total electoral votes or 33% of electoral votes of the smaller state of each other.

• Alaska (Obama, 3 EVs, +1.3%) and North Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +2.3%)
• New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +1.4%) and North Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +2.3%)
• Michigan (Obama, 17 EVs, +4.3%) and North Carolina (McCain, 15 EVs, +3.9%)
• Minnesota (Obama, 10 EVs, +6.2%) and Indiana (McCain, 11 EVs, +5.9%)
• Wisconsin (Obama, 10 EVs, +6.6%) and Indiana (McCain, 11 EVs, +5.9%)
• Wisconsin (Obama, 10 EVs, +6.6%) and Missouri (McCain, 11 EVs, +7.4%)
• New Mexico (Obama, 5 EVs, +8.8%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Maryland (Obama, 10 EVs, +10%) and Arizona (McCain, 10 EVs, +9.6%)
• Maryland (Obama, 10 EVs, +10%) and South Carolina (McCain, 8 EVs, +10.9%)
• Washington (Obama, 11 EVs, +10.2%) and Arizona (McCain, 10 EVs, +9.6%)
• Washington (Obama, 11 EVs, +10.2%) and South Carolina (McCain, 8 EVs, +10.9%)
• Maine (Obama, 4 EVs, +13.8%) and Oklahoma (McCain, 7 EVs, +14.8%)
• Rhode Island (Obama, 4 EVs, +21.3%) and Idaho (McCain, 3 EVs, 22%)

Electoral-vote.com Map

September 2: Bush 270 (-16), Kerry 252 (-), 16 Tied
Changes by election day: Colorado (tied), Iowa (tied), Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Tennessee

Today: Obama 278, McCain 247, 13 tied
Total with same EV shift as 2004: Obama 278, McCain 260 (all 13 tied go to McCain)

Note: This is the first time since July 8th that Obama has outperformed Kerry at Electoral-Vote.com

To see the current status, go to the Status of the Electoral College page.

Cross posted at Daily Kos