A moderately liberal Democraticly-themed blog
Note: these numbers might change as new polls are released, but, as of the polls available now, these are the numbers.
Romney definitely appears to have stalled Gingrich’s momentum in Florida, and there are signs that he’s reversing the tides. Whether this is due to Romney going on the attack, Gingrich calling the dogs off a bit at the last debate, or some other factor like Florida people so geting over Gingrich, it’s hard to say:
Right now the 2-week average stands at:
Romney: 36.4%
Gingrich: 32.1%
Santorum: 11.2%
Paul: 8.9%
Which is a 4.3% lead over Gingrich. Romney isn’t back to his pre-South Carolina levels (yet), though recent polls by Rasmussen, InsiderAdvantage, and ARG suggest he may be heading back in that direction. I would think Gingrich’s people see this as well and probably realize that taking the foot off the peddle at the last debate was a mistake, and I fully expect to see the same Newt we saw in South Carolina in the next debate in Florida. Also, Santorum has a downward trend in the state as well. I wouldn’t be entirely shocked if he finished in single digits, or even in 4th at the moment. One would think that would be the end of Santorum’s campaign if that occurred. Paul is, well, Paul. He’s floated from between 8% and 10% ever since the start of January.
Things to note about this 2-week average: It encompasses the entirety of Gingrich’s surge and now apparently stalling. The oldest polls in the average are ones showing Romney with 20+ point leads in Florida, which may be making his average better. Then again, it also includes polls showing Gingrich ahead as well, which doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. I’m interested to see how this chart changes over the next couple of days once older polls fall of the 2-week window.
