Status of the Electoral College: September 16

Here is the map for September 16th. Notes are below (click map for bigger version):

Methodology

Animated Gif of Map Changes

Numbers:

• Official count: Obama 197, McCain 186, Too Close to Call 155
• Strong states only: Obama 133, McCain 108
• Weak states only: McCain 78, Obama 64
• Count with “leaners”: Obama 273, McCain 265

• 1st Presidential Debate: 10 days (9/26)
• Vice Presidential Debate: 16 days (10/2)
• 2nd Presidential Debate: 21 days (10/7)
• 3rd Presidential Debate: 29 days (10/15)
• Election Day: 49 days (11/4)

All states with change of status:

• Delaware – Weak Obama to Strong Obama
• Georgia – Weak McCain to Strong McCain
• Minnesota – Weak Obama to Too Close To Call
• Montana – Too Close To Call to Strong McCain
• New Jersey – Strong Obama to Weak Obama
• New Mexico – Weak Obama to Too Close To Call
• New York – Strong Obama to Weak Obama
• North Carolina – Too Close To Call to Weak McCain
• North Dakota – Too Close To Call to Weak McCain
• Wisconsin – Weak Obama to Too Close To Call

All states with new polling this week:

• Alabama – new poll September 3rd-9th
• Alaska – new poll September 9th
• Colorado – new polls September 7th-9th, September 10th, & September 14th
• Delaware – new poll September 13th
• Florida – new polls September 6th-7th, September 9th-10th, & September 14th
• Georgia – new polls September 7th-9th & September 10th
• Idaho – new polls September 9th
• Iowa – new poll September 8th-10th
• Louisiana – missed poll from August 17th
• Maine – new poll September 8th-10th
• Maryland – new poll August 29th-September 5th
• Michigan – new polls September 5th-7th & September 7th-9th, & September 10th (x2)
• Minnesota – new polls September 9th-11th & September 10th-12th
• Mississippi – new poll September 8th-10th
• Missouri – new poll September 7th-9th & September 11th
• Montana – new poll September 8th
• Nevada – new polls September 10th & September 11th
• New Hampshire – new poll September 7th-9th
• New Jersey – new polls September 4th-7th, September 5th-8th, & September 9th-11th
• New Mexico – new poll September 8th
• New York – new poll September 8th-10th
• North Carolina – new polls September 5th-7th, September 6th-8th, September 6th-10th, September 8th-10th, & September 9th
• North Dakota – new poll September 8th
• Ohio – new polls September 5th-7th, September 5th-9th, September 5th-10th, September 10th, September 10th-13th, September 12th-14th, & September 14th
• Oklahoma – new polls September 5th-7th & September 11
• Oregon – new poll September 8th-9th
• Pennsylvania – new polls September 5th-7th & September 14th
• Utah – new polls September 10th & September 8th-11th
• Virginia – new polls September 7th-9th, September 12th-14th, & September 14th
• Washington – new polls September 6th-8th & September 10th
• West Virginia – new poll September 5th-8th
• Wisconsin – missed poll September 5th-7th
• Wyoming – new poll September 10th

Also, see the spreadsheet.

This Week’s Notes

This week we got to see the full effect of McCain’s convention bounce as I added polls for 33 states this week (2 were from older polls that I missed).  Every single Weak or Too Close To Call state has had at least one post-convention poll except for Indiana (!?) and South Dakota now, and given they both sit on McCain’s side of the fence, it’s not that big of a deal.

So what are the full effects of the McCain convention bounce over the past two weeks?  Obama’s Electoral College lead had gone from 70 down to 11 – Obama’s smallest lead he’s ever had (he was behind in the very first week on June 10th).

Obama has dropped from 243 Weak or Strong Electoral Votes down to 197, losing Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to the Too Close To Call category (though they all remain lean Obama states).

Meanwhile, McCain has risen from 173 to 186 Electoral Votes, gaining Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, and North Carolina, but losing Indiana to the Too Close To Call category (note: the poll dropping Indiana is post-Democratic Convention, but pre-Republican Convention).

Meanwhile, Obama’s lead in the Electoral Count with leaners, which was already steadily declining, dropped from 30 to 8, just above the smallest lead he ever had (6 EVs, on both June 10th and 17th) and now sits at 273-265 in favor of Obama.

This week we had 10 states change status, 9 in favor of McCain.

Delaware is the lone state which moved in Obama’s direction.  It had been sitting as a Weak Obama state forever due to the fact that it only had a single poll from back in February.  Now that someone decided to actually poll the place, it has moved up to Strong Obama.

One state whose move down I find rather dubious is New York’s.  Very, very few polls have shown that state to be close.  However, since my polls age over time, and the last poll taken in the state had been done nearly a month before, the new poll showing McCain within 5% carries a lot of weight.  While New York is officially Weak Obama, until we get another poll which confirms this last one (and I’ll be shocked if one does confirm it), I’m still treating it as effectively Strong Obama.

The eight other polls are either McCain shoring up Bush states (Georgia, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota) or Obama states dropping (Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Wisconsin).

All in all, one cannot deny that the past two weeks have been very good for John McCain.  Except for one item:  He’s still behind.  We’ve now had polls in a variety of states that cover the entire week following the Republican Convention and then some – a time period which one would expect McCain to peak – and yet he still can’t get enough states to defeat Obama, at least as of now.

That’s not to say Obama isn’t in a pecarious position.  The state which would swing the election, as it has been pretty much for weeks, is Colorado, where Obama holds on with a 0.9% lead.  On the other hand, McCain only currently holds Virginia by a 0.3% lead, so McCain can’t necessarily say that he is definitely going to get all the states he currently has on his side either.  McCain is also only ahead in Nevada by 1.2%, while the margin in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are all 2.3% (with New Mexico following at 2.5% and Wisconsin at 2.8%. Everyone else is effectively 4% ahead or more).

We’re likely not going to see much changes in the Electoral College before the 1st debate, since state polls tend to lack the national polls, if for no other reason than because they’re not taken as often, though that may start to change now that we’re only 49 days from the election.

All of this pretty much boils down the election to 8 battleground states: Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia, with 3 super-battlegrounds: Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.  If Obama wins any of those three states, he comes away with at least a tie.

So, what happens if we get a tie?  Given the current make up of the US House, Democrats hold 27 delegations, which would give Obama the Presidency.  But what if things go sour and we lose two delegations and we drop to 25?  This is where we get into nice nightmare scenarios.

First, the 12th Amendments mandate that a candidate get an absolute majority of states, meaning 26.  If the US house votes 25 for Obama, 22 for McCain, with 3 abstentions due to ties, that won’t cut it.  Someone needs 26 states.  That means there maybe some very lucky Republicans or Democrats who may be swayed into voting into the other candidate in return for, say, a high level cabinet position or something.

But what if no one budges and we can’t get a majority in the House?  Then the Vice President acts as acting President.  The Vice President is chosen by a majority vote in the US Senate.  There is one problem: based on the current make up of the Senate, we’re looking at a 50-50 tie there, assuming Lieberman votes for Palin and not Biden.  What happens then?

The 12th Amendment says one needs an absolute majority of Senators, but it doesn’t say what happens if the Senate can’t decide on a Vice President, either by a 50-50 tie or abstentions which leaves no candidate with 51 votes.  It is quite possible that in this nightmare of nightmare scenarios, Dick Cheney could cast a tie-breaking vote for the next Vice President, and thus acting President: Sarah Palin.  If the Senate rules that the Vice President cannot cast a tie-breaking vote in a vote to elect the Vice President, then the 20th Amendment suggests that me move on in the order of succession, which means that the Speaker of the House, presumably Nancy Pelosi, would become acting President, until and unless either the House or the Senate breaks it’s deadlock.

Oh, and one more note: I’ve been creating a pollster.com-ish type website to do this.  I haven’t decided whether I’ll still post a Tuesday morning update on here or not, but that site will be constantly updated with the most recent polls so you’ll always know what the current status of the Electoral College is.  I hope to have it fully up and running by the weekend.

Historical Graph

Click for bigger version:

Obama has been in kind of a freefall in the two weeks since the Republican Convention.  He obviously needs to stop and revere that if he wants to win in November.  McCain is getting closer to, but still can’t break the 200 EV mark.

Polling Wish List

Finally, my polling wish list for this week is:

• Arizona – Weak McCain, no poll for 31 days
• Indiana – Too Close To Call, no poll for 16 days
• South Dakota (7th week) – Too Close to Call, no poll for 68 days
• Texas – Weak McCain, no poll for 25 days
• Wisconsin – Too Close To Call, no poll for 9 days

On Deck: I think I can finally get rid of the on deck circle

States which haven’t had a new poll in over a month:

Arkansas, Arizona, Connecticut, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Nebraska, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont

Sister states

These are states for each candidate where the margin in those states are within 1% of each other and are within 3 total electoral votes or 33% of electoral votes of the smaller state of each other.

• Michigan (Obama, 17 EVs, +2.3%) and Ohio (McCain, 20 EVs, +2.3%)
• Pennsylvania (Obama, 21 EVs, +2.3%) and Ohio (McCain, 20 EVs, +2.3%)
• Minnesota (Obama, 10 EVs, +3.9%) and Indiana (McCain, 11 EVs, +4%)
• New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +4.5%) and South Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +4.2%)
• Washington (Obama, 11 EVs, +5.8%) and Missouri (McCain, 11 EVs, +5.2%)

Electoral-vote.com Map

September 16, 2004: Bush 311 (+25), Kerry 223 (-29), 4 Tied
Changes by election day: Colorado, Iowa, Maine (tied), New Jersey, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

Today: McCain 257, Obama 247, 34 Tied
Total with same EV shift as 2004: Obama 293, McCain 245 (PA goes to Obama, VA goes to McCain)

To see the current status, go to the Status of the Electoral College page.

Cross posted at Daily Kos

Status of the Electoral College: September 9

Here is the map for September 9th. Notes are below (click map for bigger version):

Methodology

Animated Gif of Map Changes

Numbers:

• Official count: Obama 222, McCain 165, Too Close to Call 151
• Strong states only: Obama 176, McCain 90
• Weak states only: McCain 75, Obama 46
• Count with “leaners”: Obama 284, McCain 254

• 1st Presidential Debate: 17 days (9/26)
• Vice Presidential Debate: 23 days (10/2)
• 2nd Presidential Debate: 28 days (10/7)
• 3rd Presidential Debate: 36 days (10/15)
• Election Day: 56 days (11/4)

All states with change of status:

• Alaska – Too Close To Call to Strong McCain
• Indiana – Weak McCain to Too Close To Call
• Iowa – Weak Obama to Strong Obama
• Pennsylvania – Weak Obama to Too Close To Call
• Washington – Strong Obama to Weak Obama

All states with new polling this week:

• Alaska – new polls August 30th-September 2nd & September 2nd
• Colorado – new polls September 2nd-3rd & September 7th
• Florida – new poll September 7th
• Indiana – new poll August 29th-30th
• Iowa – new poll August 31st-September 2nd
• Michigan – new poll September 6th-7th
• Minnesota – new poll August 31st-September 2nd
• North Carolina – new poll August 20th-26th
• North Dakota – new poll August 23rd-27th
• Ohio – new polls August 31st-September 2nd & September 7th
• Pennsylvania – new poll September 7th
• Virginia – new polls September 5th-7th & September 7th
• Washington – new poll September 5th-7th

Also, see the spreadsheet.

This Week’s Notes

This is week is definitely a mixed week for both of the Presidential candidates as the Republican Convention has clearly given John McCain a clear bounce, however it remains unclear whether the bounce will be enough to actually give McCain the Presidency.  And both of those statements come with asterisks attached.

The first asterisk is that we have an incomplete picture of how extensive McCain’s bump might be.  We have yet to see post-convention polls for several key battleground states including Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Wisconsin.

The current trend so far has been for Kerry states to tighten up, but not flip over to McCain, and for Bush states, with the exception of Colorado thus far, to either stay with McCain or flip to McCain.

Currently Colorado is shaping up to be the battleground state in this election.  Assuming Obama can pick up New Mexico and keep all of the states Kerry won, Colorado will be the state to decide the election, barring any eastern pickups by Obama such as Virginia or Ohio.

While Obama still leads, he remains in a very vulnerable position.  Based on the current margin, McCain could pick off enough lean Obama states to win the election easier than Obama could pick off any lean McCain states.  Currently Montana sits at +0.4% for Obama (no post-convention poll), Nevada sits as +0.8% for Obama (again, no post-convention poll), Colorado is at +1.1%, New Hampshire at +1.4% (no post-convention poll), and North Dakota and Michigan both sit at +2.4% (North Dakota has no post-convention poll).

Meanwhile for McCain, the most vulnerable state is Virginia, and it sits at +1.3% for McCain, with Florida at +2.1%, and Ohio at +2.2%.

However, the larger question about all of this is: will it last.  Convention bounces have a tendency to go away over the course of a couple weeks, and McCain really needs for whatever bounce he gets to stick.

So how does this situation we’re in this week compare to past weeks?  Again, taking into consideration that we don’t know the full extent of McCain’s bounce, the situation now looks very similar to what it was at the end of August, just before the Democratic Convention.

Obama leads the official count 222-165, which is a margin of 57 Electoral Votes.  However, digging deeper, a fuller extend of McCain’s bounce may be seen.  Once we include leaner states, Obama’s lead narrows to 284-254, a lead of only 30 Electoral Votes, the narrowest margin since June 17th (McCain has never held the electoral college lead in my status reports), and this may very well be the first time that McCain has held Florida, Ohio, and Virginia all at the same time since then.  Also, considering we haven’t seen the full extent of the bump yet, we may see yet even further tightening next week.

Historical Graph

Click for bigger version:

One can see the bump Obama got from the Democratic Convention, before going back to where it was before after the Republican Convention.  The question is: where does it go from here?

Polling Wish List

Finally, my polling wish list for this week is:

• Delaware (10th week) – Weak Obama, no poll for 194 days
• Montana (3rd week) – Too Close to Call, no poll for 42 days
• New Hampshire – Too Close To Call, no poll for 20 days
• South Dakota (6th week) – Too Close to Call, no poll for 62 days
• West Virginia (8th week) – Weak McCain, no poll for 99 days

On Deck: Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, Oregon, Wisconsin

States which haven’t had a new poll in over a month:

Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia

Sister states

These are states for each candidate where the margin in those states are within 1% of each other and are within 3 total electoral votes or 33% of electoral votes of the smaller state of each other.

• Michigan (Obama, 17 EVs, +2.4%) and Ohio (McCain, 20 EVs, +2.2%)
• Wisconsin (Obama, 10 EVs, +6.6%) and Missouri (McCain, 11 EVs, +7.4%)
• New Mexico (Obama, 5 EVs, +8.8%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Delaware (Obama, 3 EVs, +9%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Minnesota (Obama, 10 EVs, +9.5%) and Arizona (McCain, 10 EVs, +9.6%)
• Maryland (Obama, 10 EVs, +10%) and Arizona (McCain, 10 EVs, +9.6%)
• Iowa (Obama, 7 EVs, +12.4%) and Mississippi (McCain, 6 EVs, +12.4%)
• Maine (Obama, 4 EVs, +13.8%) and Oklahoma (McCain, 7 EVs, +14.8%)
• Connecticut (Obama, 7 EVs, +14.4%) and Oklahoma (McCain, 7 EVs, +14.8%)
• Rhode Island (Obama, 4 EVs, +21.3%) and Idaho (McCain, 4 EVs, +22%)

Electoral-vote.com Map

September 9, 2004: Bush 254 (-32), Kerry 243 (-9), 41 Tied
Changes by election day: Colorado (tied), Florida (tied), Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico (tied), Pennsylvania

Today: Obama 281, McCain 230, 27 tied
Total with same EV shift as 2004: Obama 290, McCain 248 (all 27 tied go to McCain)

To see the current status, go to the Status of the Electoral College page.

Cross posted at Daily Kos

Status of the Electoral College: September 2

Here is the map for September 2nd. Notes are below (click map for bigger version):

Methodology

Animated Gif of Map Changes

Numbers:

• Official count: Obama 243, McCain 173, Too Close to Call 122
• Strong states only: Obama 180, McCain 87
• Weak states only: McCain 86, Obama 63
• Count with “leaners”: Obama 297, McCain 241

• 1st Presidential Debate: 24 days (9/26)
• Vice Presidential Debate: 30 days (10/2)
• 2nd Presidential Debate: 35 days (10/7)
• 3rd Presidential Debate: 43 days (10/15)
• Election Day: 63 days (11/4)

All states with change of status:

• New Mexico – Too Close To Call to Lean Obama
• Pennsylvania – Too Close To Call to Lean Obama

All states with new polling this week:

• California – new poll August 12th-19th
• Colorado – new polls August 23rd-24th & August 24th-26th
• Florida – new polls August 17th-24th, August 22nd-24th, & August 25th-26th
• Idaho – new poll August 18th-22nd
• Nevada – new poll August 24th-26th
• New Mexico – new poll August 24th-26th
• North Carolina – new poll August 20th-23rd
• Ohio – new poll August 17th-24th
• Pennsylvania – new polls August 17th-24th & August 24th-26th
• Rhode Island – new poll August 18th-20th

Also, see the spreadsheet.

This Week’s Notes

Barack Obama is already seeing some movement back in his direction, and this is even before the Democratic Convention is being taken into account in state polling (only the first day of the convention is being included in some states – Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania – and even then it’s only about 1/3 of the sample).  Also, state polling was fairly minimal this week, perhaps waiting until after the Democratic Convention was over before resuming polling.

Good polling in Pennsylvania and New Mexico has pushed both of those states back into the “Weak Obama” column, marking the first time Obama has increased his official total since July 22, when he hit his peak.  The gains this weak  have completely wiped away his losses in the official count from the previous two weeks, which were both good McCain weeks.

One thing that we haven’t been able to see due to lack of polling data is whether any of McCain’s weak states, such as Missouri or Indiana, are trying to trend back towards being Too Close To Call or not.  The only state in McCain’s official count that was polled this week is Idaho, which remains a strong McCain state.  As a result, McCain’s numbers remain steady this week.

Obama also gained in the count with leaners this week for the first time since August 5th with Nevada flipping from lean McCain to lean Obama.

Overall, Obama has a 70 Electoral Vote lead in the official count, 243 to 173 with 122 Too Close To Call (the lowest number since July 22) while Obama has a 56 Electoral Vote lead in the count with leaners, 297 to 241.  This is the third straight week where Obama has had fewer than 300 Electoral Votes counting leaners, tying the longest stretch set in the first 3 weeks that I tracked polls: June 10 – June 24th.

Historical Graph

Click for bigger version:

Obama gets a much needed halt to the bleeding as he bumps back up to where he was through most of August.  McCain remains steady due to lack of polling data on his states this week.

Polling Wish List

Finally, my polling wish list for this week is:

• Delaware (9th week) – Weak Obama, no poll for 186 days
• Montana (2nd week) – Too Close to Call, no poll for 34 days
• North Dakota (2nd week) – Too Close to Call, no poll for 40 days
• South Dakota (5th week) – Too Close to Call, no poll for 54 days
• West Virginia (7th week) – Weak McCain, no poll for 91 days

On Deck: Alaska, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina

States which haven’t had a new poll in over a month:

Arkansas, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia

Sister states

These are states for each candidate where the margin in those states are within 1% of each other and are within 3 total electoral votes or 33% of electoral votes of the smaller state of each other.

• Alaska (Obama, 3 EVs, +1.3%) and North Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +2.3%)
• New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +1.4%) and North Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +2.3%)
• Michigan (Obama, 17 EVs, +4.3%) and North Carolina (McCain, 15 EVs, +3.9%)
• Minnesota (Obama, 10 EVs, +6.2%) and Indiana (McCain, 11 EVs, +5.9%)
• Wisconsin (Obama, 10 EVs, +6.6%) and Indiana (McCain, 11 EVs, +5.9%)
• Wisconsin (Obama, 10 EVs, +6.6%) and Missouri (McCain, 11 EVs, +7.4%)
• New Mexico (Obama, 5 EVs, +8.8%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Maryland (Obama, 10 EVs, +10%) and Arizona (McCain, 10 EVs, +9.6%)
• Maryland (Obama, 10 EVs, +10%) and South Carolina (McCain, 8 EVs, +10.9%)
• Washington (Obama, 11 EVs, +10.2%) and Arizona (McCain, 10 EVs, +9.6%)
• Washington (Obama, 11 EVs, +10.2%) and South Carolina (McCain, 8 EVs, +10.9%)
• Maine (Obama, 4 EVs, +13.8%) and Oklahoma (McCain, 7 EVs, +14.8%)
• Rhode Island (Obama, 4 EVs, +21.3%) and Idaho (McCain, 3 EVs, 22%)

Electoral-vote.com Map

September 2: Bush 270 (-16), Kerry 252 (-), 16 Tied
Changes by election day: Colorado (tied), Iowa (tied), Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Tennessee

Today: Obama 278, McCain 247, 13 tied
Total with same EV shift as 2004: Obama 278, McCain 260 (all 13 tied go to McCain)

Note: This is the first time since July 8th that Obama has outperformed Kerry at Electoral-Vote.com

To see the current status, go to the Status of the Electoral College page.

Cross posted at Daily Kos

Status of the Electoral College: August 26

Here is the map for August 26th. Notes are below (click map for bigger version):

Methodology

Numbers:

• Official count: Obama 217, McCain 173, Too Close to Call 148
• Strong states only: Obama 180, McCain 87
• Weak states only: McCain 86, Obama 37
• Count with “leaners”: Obama 292, McCain 246

• Weeks until the Republican Convention: 1 week
• Weeks until Election Day: 10 weeks

All states with change of status:

• Arizona – Strong McCain to Weak McCain
• Indiana – Too Close To Call to Weak McCain
• Minnesota – Too Close to Call to Weak Obama
• Missouri – Too Close To Call to Weak McCain
• New Mexico – Weak Obama to Too Close To Call
• Pennsylvania – Weak Obama to Too Close To Call

All states with new polling this week:

• Arizona – new polls August 13th-15th & August 14th-16th
• California – new poll August 20th
• Colorado – new polls August 13th-15th, August 15th-21st, & August 21st-24th
• Florida – new polls August 18th, August 18th-20th, & August 18th-21st
• Indiana – new polls August 16th-18th & August 19th-21st
• Iowa – new poll August 4th-13th
• Kansas – new poll August 18th-20th
• Maryland – new poll August 18th
• Michigan – new polls August 17th-20th & August 18th-21st
• Minnesota – new poll August 7th-17th
• Mississippi – new polls August 21st
• Missouri – new poll August 13th-17th
• Nevada – new polls August 13th-15th & August 18th-20th
• New Hampshire – new polls August 19th & August 18th-20th
• New Mexico – new poll August 20th
• North Carolina – new polls August 14th-17th & August 19th
• Ohio – new polls August 18th
• Pennsylvania – new polls August 11th-14th & August 19th
• Tennessee – new poll August 20th
• Texas – new poll August 21st
• Utah – new poll August 13th-15th
• Virginia – new poll August 20th-22nd
• Wyoming – new poll August 13th-15th

Also, see the spreadsheet.

This Week’s Notes

For the second straight week, McCain has significantly eroded Obama’s position in the Electoral College.  However, unlike last week, where most of the erosion was taking place “under ground,” this week we see some real changes in the numbers, as McCain gains a net 38 Electoral Votes on Obama this week.

Five huge battle states switched categories this week, four in McCain’s favor:

The first two were Indiana and Missouri, which are increasingly getting out of Obama’s grasp and which now debut as Lean McCain states, adding 22 Electoral Votes to McCain’s total.

The the last two in McCain’s favor were New Mexico and Pennsylvania, in which tightening polls have moved those states from Lean Obama to Too Close To Call.  The last battleground switch was Minnesota, which flipped back to Lean Obama after a week in Too Close To Call.  This results in a net loss of 16 Electoral Votes from Obama’s column.

The only other state to move was Arizona, switching from Strong McCain to Weak McCain after a pair of polls this week.

Overall, McCain has closed the gap to it’s closest point since June 17th – the first week that Obama had an Electoral College lead (and before my change in methodology I should add).  This also marks the first time that Obama is under 230 Electoral Votes since June 17th, and the first time McCain has been able to break his flatline count of between 150 and 160 since June 24th.

Another huge move below the surface this week was Ohio finally moving to McCain’s lean column.  However, this was somewhat mitigated by Virginia moving back to Obama’s lean column, resulting in only a +7 gain for McCain in the count with leaners.  That count now stands at Obama 292, McCain 246.  This marks the closest this count has been since July 29th, and the first time Obama has had consecutive weeks under 300 Electoral Votes since June 17th and 24th.  It is also Obama’s lowest count and McCain’s highest count since June 24th.

The turning point states this week – the state which, if switched, would give McCain the election – is either Colorado or New Hampshire, both of which are currently +1.4 in favor of Obama which, ironically, is better than last week even though McCain is closer in the count, due to how states shifted around this week.

Historical Graph

Click for bigger version:

The narrowing between Obama and McCain that has been taking place since mid-July continues.  However, this is the first week where the narrowing is helped by McCain actually gaining electoral votes instead of Obama losing them.

Polling Wish List

Finally, my polling wish list for this week is:

• Delaware (8th week) – Weak Obama, no poll for 180 days
• Montana – Too Close to Call, no poll for 28 days
• North Dakota – Too Close to Call, no poll for 34 days
• South Dakota (4th week) – Too Close to Call, no poll for 48 days
• West Virginia (6th week) – Weak McCain, no poll for 85 days

On Deck: Arkansas, Connecticut, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota

States which haven’t had a new poll in over a month:

Arkansas, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Vermont, West Virginia.

Sister states

These are states for each candidate where the margin in those states are within 1% of each other and are within 3 total electoral votes or 33% of electoral votes of the smaller state of each other.

• Alaska (Obama, 3 EVs, +1.3%) and North Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +2.3%)
• Alaska (Obama, 3 EVs, +1.3%) and Nevada (McCain, 5 EVs, +2.1%)
• New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +1.4%) and North Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +2.3%)
• New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +1.4%) and Nevada (McCain, 5 EVs, +2.1%)
• New Mexico (Obama, 5 EVs, +4.3%) and South Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +4.2%)
• Michigan (Obama, 17 EVs, +4.3%) and North Carolina (McCain, 15 EVs, +4.4%)
• Minnesota (Obama, 10 EVs, +6.2%) and Indiana (McCain, 11 EVs, +5.9%)
• Wisconsin (Obama, 10 EVs, +6.6%) and Indiana (McCain, 11 EVs, +5.9%)
• Wisconsin (Obama, 10 EVs, +6.6%) and Missouri (McCain, 11 EVs, +7.4%)
• Maryland (Obama, 10 EVs, +10%) and Arizona (McCain, 10 EVs, +9.6%)
• Maryland (Obama, 10 EVs, +10%) and South Carolina (McCain, 8 EVs, +10.9%)
• Washington (Obama, 11 EVs, +10.2%) and Arizona (McCain, 10 EVs, +9.6%)
• Washington (Obama, 11 EVs, +10.2%) and South Carolina (McCain, 8 EVs, +10.9%)
• Maine (Obama, 4 EVs, +13.8%) and Oklahoma (McCain, 7 EVs, +14.8%)

Electoral-vote.com Map

August 26, 2004: Kerry 280 (+28), Bush 238 (-48), 20 Tied
Changes by election day: Colorado (tied), Iowa, Missouri (tied), Nevada, New Mexico, Tennessee

Today: Obama 273, McCain 252, 13 tied
Total with same EV shift as 2004: McCain 293, Obama 245, all 13 tied go to McCain

To see the current status, go to the Status of the Electoral College page.

Cross posted at Daily Kos

Status of the Electoral College: August 19

Here is the map for August 19th. Notes are below (click map for bigger version):

Methodology

Numbers:

• Official count: Obama 233, McCain 151, Too Close to Call 154
• Strong states only: Obama 180, McCain 97
• Weak states only: McCain 54, Obama 53
• Count with “leaners”: Obama 299, McCain 239

• Weeks until the Democratic Convention: 1 week
• Weeks until the Republican Convention: 2 weeks
• Weeks until Election Day: 11 weeks

All states with change of status:

• Alaska – Weak McCain to Too Close To Call
• Minnesota – Weak Obama to Too Close To Call

All states with new polling this week:

• Alaska – new poll August 6th-7th
• Colorado – new polls August 11th-13th & August 13th
• Florida – new poll August 11th
• Georgia – new poll August 14th
• Kansas – new poll August 11th
• Kentucky – new poll August 9th-11th
• Maine – new poll August 12th
• Minnesota – new polls August 13th & August 13th-14th
• Nevada – new poll August 11th
• New Jersey – new poll August 4th-10th
• New York – new poll August 11th-1th
• North Carolina – new polls August 9th-11th & August 13th
• Ohio – new poll August 12th-14th
• Pennsylvania – new poll August 4th-10th
• Tennessee – new poll August 10th-12th
• Texas – new poll July 18th-30th
• Virginia – new polls August 12th (x2)
• Washington – new poll August 11th-12th
• Wisconsin – new poll August 8th-10th

Also, see the spreadsheet.

This Week’s Notes

While there wasn’t much change in the official count, in the deep down darkness of the numbers, this was definitely a win week for McCain.

McCain gained ground nearly everywhere on Obama, gaining enough in Virginia and Nevada to flip those states from lean Obama to lean McCain and very nearly did the same in Colorado (Obama still holds it by 0.1%).  The tipping point for McCain to win the presidency is now Ohio, which Obama leads by only 0.4%.  In other words, McCain is now thisclose from taking the Electoral College lead from Obama, at least when counting leaners.

The other bad sign for Obama is that states which previously were out of play are now well back into play.  Minnesota, which used to be one of the bluest of the blue states now finds itself back in the Too Close To Call category, with Wisconsin heading in that direction as well.

In the end, McCain only has 2 states and 24 Electoral Votes within 1% – Indiana and Virginia – while Obama has 3 states and 32 Electoral Votes – Colorado, Montana, and Ohio.  About the only good thing for Obama in the Too Close To Call count is that McCain still has more Electoral Votes within 5% with 88, compared to Obama’s 66.

Obama appeared to enjoy a 2 week bump, or at least a lull, where his official numbers didn’t change, and the count with leaners bumped him over the 300 mark again for 2 weeks, however, both of those numbers are now heading back down again.

Obama now has his lowest Electoral College total since June 24th, before I made my methodology change, while the count with leaners is close to where it was 2 weeks ago, and back under 300.  The only comforting news for Obama may be that McCain hasn’t been between 150 and 160 Electoral Votes in his official count ever since the first of July, so while Obama is losing ground, McCain isn’t necessarily taking advantage of it in the official count, though both Missouri and North Carolina are both on the cusp of going into McCain’s official count.

As for good news for Obama – there isn’t a lot.  A somewhat dubious poll in Alaska did put that state back into the Too Close to Call category, but Obama still lost that exchange by putting Minnesota there as well.  Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Jersey, and Washington, while not changing status, all lost ground this week as well.

Historical Graph

Click for bigger version:

Obama continues his tumble downward.  The one positive thing on this graph, however, is that Too Close To Call has now overtaken McCain in Electoral Votes, though almost entirely at the expense of Obama.

Polling Wish List

Finally, my polling wish list for this week is:

• Delaware (7th week) – Weak Obama, no poll for 173 days
• Indiana (5th week) – Too Close To Call, no poll for 57 days
• South Dakota (3rd week) – Too Close to Call, no poll for 41 days
• West Virginia (5th week) – Weak McCain, no poll for 78 days
• Wyoming (3rd week) – Strong McCain, no poll for 97 days

On Deck: Maryland, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas

States which haven’t had a new poll in over a month:

Arkansas, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming.

Sister states

These are states for each candidate where the margin in those states are within 1% of each other and are within 3 total electoral votes or 33% of electoral votes of the smaller state of each other.

• Alaska (Obama, 3 EVs, +1.3%) and North Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +2.3%)
• New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +3.3%) and North Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +2.3%)
• New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +3.3%) and Nevada (McCain, 5 EVs, +2.4%)
• New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +3.3%) and South Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +4.2%)
• Michigan (Obama, 17 EVs, +3.8%) and North Carolina (McCain, 15 EVs, +4.6%)
• Delaware (Obama, 3 EVs, +9%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Washington (Obama, 11 EVs, +10.2%) and South Carolina (McCain, 8 EVs, +10.9%)
• Washington (Obama, 11 EVs, +11.9%) and South Carolina (McCain, 8 EVs, +10.9%)
• Maine (Obama, 4 EVs, +13.8%) and Wyoming (McCain, 3 EVs, +13.1%)
• Connecticut (Obama, 7 EVs, +14.4%) and Oklahoma (McCain, 7 EVs, +14.8%)
• Connecticut (Obama, 7 EVs, +14.4%) and Kentucky (McCain, 8 EVs, +15.4%)

Electoral-vote.com Map

August 19, 2004: Kerry 301 (+49), Bush 213 (-73), 24 Tied
Changes by election day: Colorado (tied), Florida, Iowa, New Mexico (tied), Ohio, West Virginia, Wisconsin (tied)

Today: Obama 275, McCain 250, 13 tied
Total with same EV shift as 2004: McCain 322, Obama 216, all 13 tied go to McCain

To see the current status, go to the Status of the Electoral College page.

Cross posted at Daily Kos

Status of the Electoral College: August 12

Here is the map for August 12th. Notes are below (click map for bigger version):

Methodology

Numbers:

• Official count: Obama 243, McCain 154, Too Close to Call 141
• Strong states only: Obama 180, McCain 97
• Weak states only: Obama 63, McCain 57
• Count with “leaners”: Obama 314, McCain 224

• Weeks until the Democratic Convention: 2 weeks
• Weeks until the Republican Convention: 3 weeks
• Weeks until Election Day: 12 weeks

All states with change of status:

• Wisconsin – From Strong Obama to Weak Obama

All states with new polling this week:

• Alabama – new poll July 29th-August 4th
• Colorado – new poll August 5th-7th
• Florida – new poll July 30th-August 2nd
• Iowa – new poll August 7th
• Massachusetts – new poll August 5th
• Michigan – new poll August 7th
• Missouri – new poll August 7th
• New Jersey – new polls, July 31st-August4th & August 4th
• New York – new poll August 4th
• Oregons – new poll August 2nd-4th & August 7th
• Virginia – new poll August 8th-10th
• Washington – new polls July 27th-31st & August 6th
• Wisconsin – new polls August 3rd-4th & August 5th

Also, see the spreadsheet.

This Week’s Notes

This week appears to be another status quo week, even though only one candidate’s states were polled this week.

Obama had 7 Weak or Strong states polled and an additional 3 lean states polled this week, however the only change was two polls showing that Wisconsin has slipped from a Strong Obama state to a middle-of-the-pack Weak Obama state.

The state with the most variation this week was Oregon, which had two polls released: one showing only a 3% lead and one showing a 10% lead.  Those two polls averaged to keep Oregon in the Weak Obama category.

Otherwise, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York all remained Strong Obama, Iowa remained Weak Obama, and Colorado, Michigan, and Virginia all stayed on Obama’s side of the Too Close To Call category.

On the other hand, McCain only had 3 of this states polled – only one was either a week or strong state: Alabama.  The other two were Missouri and Florida.  There were no changes in any of those states, though Missouri is now on the verge of becoming a Weak McCain state.

Even though virtually all the numbers – both the official count and the count with leaners – stayed the same, this week can be considered a marginal win this week for Obama considering McCain’s fervant attacks against him and the fact that virtually all states polled this week were Obama states, and yet the status quo was kept.

We do see some slight tightening in some states, but not enough to create a change of status in most, and some of it could be float in the margin of error of polls as well.

In the end, the official count remains the same for the 3rd consecutive week at Obama 243, McCain 154, Too Close To Call 141, while the count with leaners remains the same for the 2nd consecutive week at Obama 314, McCain 224.

Historical Graph

Click for bigger version:

After the final nomination bounce corrections took place in late July, the race has remained remarkably static.  It may end up remaining this way until the Vice Presidential announcements or even the national conventions.

Polling Wish List

Finally, my polling wish list for this week is:

• Delaware (6th week) – Weak Obama, no poll for 166 days
• Indiana (4th week) – Too Close To Call, no poll for 50 days
• South Dakota (2nd week) – Too Close to Call, no poll for 34 days
• West Virginia (4th week) – Weak McCain, no poll for 71 days
• Wyoming (2nd week) – Strong McCain, no poll for 90 days

On Deck: Illinois, Maryland, Nevada, Oklahoma, Tennessee

States which haven’t had a new poll in over a month:

DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming.

Sister states

These are states for each candidate where the margin in those states are within 1% of each other and are within 3 total electoral votes or 33% of electoral votes of the smaller state of each other.

• Virginia (Obama, 13 EVs, +0.6%) and Indiana (McCain, 11 EVs, +0.8%)
• New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +3.3%) and North Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +2.3%)
• New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +3.3%) and South Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +4.2%)
• Michigan (Obama, 17 EVs, +3.8%) and North Carolina (McCain, 15 EVs, +3.7%)
• Delaware (Obama, 3 EVs, +9%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Maine (Obama, 4 EVs, +11.1%) and Mississippi (McCain, 6 EVs, +10.4%)
• Maine (Obama, 4 EVs, +11.1%) and Arkansas (McCain, 6 EVs, +10.5%)
• Washington (Obama, 11 EVs, +11.9%) and South Carolina (McCain, 8 EVs, +10.9%)
• Connecticut (Obama, 7 EVs, +14.4%) and Oklahoma (McCain, 7 EVs, +14.8%)
• Connecticut (Obama, 7 EVs, +14.4%) and Kentucky (McCain, 8 EVs, +15.4%)

Electoral-vote.com Map

August 12, 2004: Kerry 307 (+55), Bush 231 (-55)
Changes by election day: Florida, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, West Virginia

Today: Obama 289, McCain 249
Total with same EV shift as 2004: McCain 304, Obama 234

To see the current status, go to the Status of the Electoral College page.

Cross posted at Daily Kos

Status of the Electoral College: August 5

Here is the map for August 5th. Notes are below (click map for bigger version):

Methodology

Numbers:

• Official count: Obama 243, McCain 154, Too Close to Call 141
• Strong states only: Obama 190, McCain 97
• Weak states only: McCain 57, Obama 53
• Count with “leaners”: Obama 314, McCain 224

• Weeks until the Democratic Convention: 3 weeks
• Weeks until the Republican Convention: 4 weeks
• Weeks until Election Day: 13 weeks

All states with change of status:

• Arizona – Weak McCain to Strong McCain
• Mississippi – Weak McCain to Strong McCain

All states with new polling this week:

• Alabama – new poll July 31st
• Arizona – new polls July 30th & July 30th-31st
• California – new poll July 8th-22nd
• Connecticut – new poll July 31st
• Florida – new poll July 20th-28th, July 23rd-29th, August 1st-3rd
• Idaho – new poll July 28th-30th
• Kentucky – new polls July 29th & July 28th-30th
• Massachusetts – new poll August 3rd
• Michigan – new poll July 23rd-27th
• Mississippi – new poll July 28th
• Missouri – new poll July 29th-31st
• Montana – new poll July 29th
• Nebraska – new poll July 28th
• North Carolina – new polls July 23rd-27th & July 28th-30th
• Ohio – new poll July 23rd-29th
• Pennsylvania – new polls July 25th-27th & July 23rd-29th
• Texas – new poll July 30th
• Washington – new poll July 25th-27th

Also, see the spreadsheet.

This Week’s Notes

This week was pretty much a “keep the status quo” week, despite having 18 states polled, including 6 “Too Close To Call” states.

Movement towards McCain’s side was restricted to two of his strongest “weak” states – Mississippi and Arizona – moving up into the “Strong McCain” category.   This did not change McCain’s overall total, but did increase McCain’s “strong” state total to 97, the highest it’s been since June 24th when the his “strong” total was last over 100.   McCain’s “weak” total sits at 57, the lowest thus far, showing that McCain seems to be consolidating his strength in states that lean more towards him, restricting the battleground states to current battle grounds.

Obama didn’t have any movement in the official count, but Ohio did slide back over to Obama’s “lean” category, increasing his margin in the count with leaders to 314 to 224, ending his one week stint with under 300 electoral votes.  This is the highest total with leaners Obama has had since July 8th.

As I alluded to with McCain, this race appears to be increasingly paring down “mid-level” states as you will, with more and more states either going into either the “Too Close To Call” category or sliding into the respective candidate’s “strong” categories.  We now only have a total of 110 “weak” electoral votes – 57 for McCain, more than half of which are in the state of Texas, and 51 for Obama, 40% of which are in the state of Pennsylvania.  There is now a grand total of only 10 states remaining in both candidate’s “weak” categories, as compared to 27 states + DC in their “strong” categories and 13 states in the “Too Close To Call” category.

Overall, Obama still has the edge.  As I mentioned above, the candidates are nearly tied in “weak” EVs, with McCain having 57 and Obama having 53.  They are also nearly even in “lean” EVs, with McCain having 70 and Obama 71.  Where the difference is “strong” EVs, where Obama still leads McCain 190 to 97.

One possible warning sign for Obama is that more of his lean states are within 1% than McCain’s, with Obama having 36 Electoral votes within 1% while McCain only has 11.  However, even if all of those states switched to McCain, Obama would still have the lead.

Currently the state on the bubble, the state at which, if Obama wins that state and all states stronger to him, he wins, and if McCain wins that state and all states stronger for him than that, he wins, is Colorado, which currently sits at +2% for Obama.  Such a win would be without Ohio, Virginia, or Florida for Obama.

Historical Graph

Click for bigger version:

As you can see, not much to talk about as all three numbers remained static.  Which direction they move next might determine where this race goes in the future.  Has Obama finished dropping, or is this just a lull before further McCain gains?

Polling Wish List

Finally, my polling wish list for this week is:

• Delaware (5th week) – Weak Obama, no poll for 158 days
• Indiana (3rd week) – Too Close To Call, no poll for 43 days
• South Dakota – Too Close to Call, no poll for 27 days
• West Virginia (3rd week) – Weak McCain, no poll for 63 days
• Wyoming – Strong McCain, no poll for 83 days

On Deck: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma, Tennessee

States which haven’t had a new poll in over a month:

DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Indiana, Maryland, New York, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming.

Sister states

These are states for each candidate where the margin in those states are within 1% of each other and are within 3 total electoral votes or 33% of electoral votes of the smaller state of each other.

• Virginia (Obama, 13 EVs, +0.4%) and Indiana (McCain, 11 EVs, +0.8%)
• New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +3.3%) and North Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +2.3%)
• New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +3.3%) and South Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +4.2%)
• Michigan (Obama, 17 EVs, +3.7%) and North Carolina (McCain, 15 EVs, +3.7%)
• Oregon (Obama, 7 EVs, +8.4%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Iowa (Obama, 7 EVs, +8.8%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Delaware (Obama, 3 EVs, +9%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Wisconsin (Obama 10 EVs, +10.4%) and South Carolina (McCain, 8 EVs, +10.9%)
• Maine (Obama, 4 EVs, +11.1%) and Mississippi (McCain, 6 EVs, +10.4%)
• Maine (Obama, 4 EVs, +11.1%) and Arkansas (McCain, 6 EVs, +10.5%)
• Connecticut (Obama, 7 EVs, +14.4%) and Oklahoma (McCain, 7 EVs, +14.8%)
• Connecticut (Obama, 7 EVs, +14.4%) and Kentucky (McCain, 8 EVs, +15.4%)

Electoral-vote.com Map

August 5, 2004: Kerry 307 (+55), Bush 231 (-55)
Changes by election day: Florida, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, West Virginia

Today: Obama 289, McCain 236, Tied 13
Total with same EV shift as 2004: McCain 304, Obama 234 (all 13 tied go to McCain)

To see the current status, go to the Status of the Electoral College page.

Cross posted at Daily Kos

Status of the Electoral College: July 29

Here is the map for July 29th. Notes are below (click map for bigger version):

Methodology

Numbers:

• Official count: Obama 243, McCain 154, Too Close to Call 141
• Strong states only: Obama 190, McCain 81
• Weak states only: McCain 73, Obama 53
• Count with “leaners”: Obama 294, McCain 244

• Weeks until the Democratic Convention: 4 weeks
• Weeks until the Republican Convention: 5 weeks
• Weeks until Election Day: 14 weeks

All states with change of status:

• Maine – Weak Obama to Strong Obama
• Michigan – Weak Obama to Too Close To Call
• Minnesota – Strong Obama to Weak Obama
• New Jersey – Weak Obama to Strong Obama
• Ohio – Weak Obama to Too Close To Call
• South Carolina – Weak McCain to Strong McCain

All states with new polling this week:

• California – new poll July 24th
• Colorado – new polls July 21st, July 14th-22nd, & July 16th-22nd.
• Florida – new polls July 19th-21st & July 22nd
• Maine – new poll June 1st-27th (yes, you see that right, the poll is a month old)
• Michigan – new polls July 13th-15th & July 14th-22nd
• Minnesota – new polls July 22nd & July 14th-22nd
• Mississippi – new poll July 21st-23rd
• New Hampshire – new polls July 19th-21st & July 23rd
• New Jersey – new poll July 17th-21st
• New Mexico – new poll July 24th
• North Dakota – new poll July 21st-23rd
• Ohio – new poll July 21st
• Pennsylvania – new poll July 23rd
• South Carolina – new poll July 22nd-23rd

Also, see the spreadsheet.

This Week’s Notes

This is the first week showing a real drop in Obama’s number.  However, this week was more bad for Obama than it was good for McCain.

The first reason for this is that, despite Obama’s losses (which I’ll get into in a moment), McCain’s numbers have remained essentially static.  Indeed, the only movement within McCain’s official count was South Carolina moving from Weak McCain to Strong McCain.  However, McCain’s total stands unchanged at 154.  Even with the methodological shift, his total has remained largely unchanged since the start of July (his max was 160 and minimum was 151 this month).

Indeed, all the movement has been on Obama’s side this week.  The three biggest shifts were three swing states shifting downward.

First, and perhaps most importantly, is Ohio, which went from Weak Obama to Too Close To Call.  Indeed, it shifted so much that it now sits as a McCain leaner, though only by about the slimmest margin possible (it’s about as close to being tied as one can get without being tied).  This is thanks to a new poll released this week showing McCain 10% ahead in Ohio.  A poll had been conducted the day before showing Obama 8% ahead, but since those were the first new polls in a month, it largely came down to an average between the two, and McCain won.

Second, there is Michigan, which also fell from Weak Obama to Too Close to Call thanks to a total of two polls in the last two weeks showing Obama ahead by 2% and 4% there.  However, Michigan is still a solid lean Obama state (if you can have a solid lean state).

Finally, Minnesota dropped from Strong Obama to Weak Obama, but again sits right on the borderline and is, indeed, Obama’s strongest “Weak” state.

It wasn’t all bad for Obama, however.  A new Maine poll, even though it was a month old, pushed Maine back from Weak Obama to Strong Obama, while a new New Jersey poll did the same thing for that state.

Nevertheless, having a net 29 Electoral Votes drop, with 37 dropping out of your count in one week can be a little disconcerting.  We’ll have to see if this is just the final corrections from Obama’s nomination bounce in those states or whether it is a sign of something bigger.  We’ll probably have to wait a couple weeks to know for sure.

Despite all of this, Obama still remains in good position, leading McCain 243-154 with a record 141 electoral votes in the Too Close To Call category, and an amazing 71 Electoral Votes within 1%.  The count with leaners is Obama 294 to McCain’s 244 which is Obama’s first time under 300 since June 24th (though again, I did switch my methodology since then).  This is also McCain’s highest total since that date.

Looking at the more detailed breakdown, the only real changes were in the Weak Obama category and the Too Close To Call category, with Ohio and Michigan dropping.  Indeed, both McCain categories and the Strong Obama category remained largely unchanged, leaving Obama with a 190 to 81 lead over McCain among strong states.

Historical Graph

Click for bigger version:

Not many data point since my change of methodology, but you can see that, despite Obama’s drop this week, he’s still in good shape over McCain.

Polling Wish List

Finally, my polling wish list for this week is:

• Delaware (4th week) – Weak Obama, no poll for 152 days
• Idaho (3rd week) – Strong McCain, no poll for 152 days
• Indiana (2nd week) – Too Close To Call, no poll for 36 days
• Montana – Too Close To Call, no polls for 28 days
• West Virginia (2nd week) – Weak McCain, no poll for 57 days

On Deck: Arizona, Maryland, South Dakota, Texas, Wyoming

States which haven’t had a new poll in over a month:

Alabama, Arizona, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming.

Sister states

These are states for each candidate where the margin in those states are within 1% of each other and are within 3 total electoral votes or 33% of electoral votes of the smaller state of each other.

• Colorado (Obama, 9 EVs, +1.3%) and Indiana (McCain, 11 EVs, +0.8%)
• Colorado (Obama, 9 EVs, +1.3%) and Missouri (McCain, 11 EVs, +1.4%)
• New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +3.3%) and North Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +2.3%)
• New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +3.3%) and South Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +4.2%)
• Michigan (Obama, 17 EVs, +4.2%) and North Carolina (McCain, 15 EVs, +4.1%)
• Montana (Obama, 3 EVs, +4.8%) and South Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +4.2%)
• Iowa (Obama, 7 EV,s +8.8%) and Mississippi (McCain, 6 EVs, +8.8%)
• Iowa (Obama, 7 EVs, +8.8%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Delaware (Obama, 3 EVs, +9%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Oregon (Obama, 7 EVs, +8.4%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Oregon (Obama, 7 EVs, +8.4%) and Arizona (McCain, 10 EVs, +9.4%)
• Oregon (Obama, 7 EVs, +8.4%) and Mississippi (McCain, 6 EVs, +8.8%)
• Minnesota (Obama, 10 EVs, +9.5%) and Arizona (McCain, 10 EVs, +9.4%)
• Delaware (Obama, 3 EVs, +9.0) and Mississippi (McCain, 6 EVs, +8.8%)
• Wisconsin (Obama, 10 EVs, 10.4%) and Arizona (McCain, 10 EVs, +9.4%)
• Wisconsin (Obama, 10 EVs, 10.4%) and South Carolina (McCain, 8 EVs, +10.9%)
• Maine (Obama, 4 EVs, +11.1%) and Arkansas (McCain, 6 EVs, +10.5%)

Electoral-vote.com Map

July 29, 2004: Kerry 291 (+39), Bush 237 (-49), Tied 10 (+10)
Changes by election day: Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota (tie) Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Tennessee

Today: Obama 292, McCain 195, Tied 51
Total with same EV shift as 2004: McCain 295, Obama 243 (all 51 tied go to McCain)

To see the current status, go to the Status of the Electoral College page.

Cross posted at Daily Kos

Status of the Electoral College: July 22

Here is the map for July 22nd. Notes are below (click map for bigger version):

Methodology

Numbers:

• Official count: Obama 280, McCain 154, Too Close to Call 104
• Strong states only: Obama 181, McCain 73
• Weak states only: Obama 99, McCain 81
• Count with “leaners”: Obama 301, McCain 234, Tied 3

• Weeks until the Democratic Convention: 5 weeks
• Weeks until the Republican Convention: 6 weeks
• Weeks until Election Day: 15 weeks

All states with change of status:

• Alaska (From Too Close To Call to Weak McCain)
• Maine (From Strong Obama to Weak Obama)
• New Hampshire (From Strong Obama to Too Close To Call)
• Ohio (From Too Close To Call to Weak Obama)

All states with new polling this week:

• Alaska – new polls July 14th-16th & July 17
• Arkansas – new poll July 15th
• California – new poll July 8th-14th
• Georgia – new poll July 17th
• Kansas – new poll July 15th
• Maine – new poll July 17th
• Nevada – new poll July 16th
• New Hampshire – new poll July 11th-20th
• New Jersey – new poll July 11th-13th
• North Carolina – new polls July 12th-14th and July 15th
• Ohio – new poll July 18th-20th
• Oregon – new poll July 14th
• South Carolina – new poll July 9th-11th
• Virginia – new poll July 16th
• Washington – new poll July 13th-15th

Also, see the spreadsheet.

This Week’s Notes

This week is a mixed week for both candidates, though the week, ultimately, still resulted in a gain for Obama.

Four states had a change of status this week, both marking an improvement for Obama, but also highlighted some possible cracks in the armor (more on that soon).

The big state to change status this week was Ohio, which moved from Too Close To Call to Weak Obama, and thus pushing Obama over the 270 electoral vote threshold using only Weak and Strong states.  This means, if we assume that Obama wins every state in which he is currently leading by at least 5%, he could lose every single “lean” state and still win the presidency.  This is a huge line to cross for Obama though, of course, he still has to maintain it as well.

McCain also gained another state as two polls in Alaska pushed it back from Too Close To Call to Weak McCain, improving his total to 154, the first time McCain actually ends a week with more electoral votes than he started with.

The two other states which had a change of status are the ones that show a possible weakness in Obama’s armor.  The first is Maine, where a new poll only shows Obama up by 8%, even though two polls a month ago had him up 14 and 22 points respectively.  Since the last Maine polls were nearly a month ago, the new poll was just enough to drop Maine from Strong Obama to Weak Obama (though by only 0.2%).

The other state is New Hampshire, where a new poll this week showed Obama head by only 3%, again despite polls from a month ago showing Obama ahead there by 11% and 12%.  Again, since the last polls in the state were so old, this new poll dropped New Hampshire all the way from Strong Obama to Too Close To Call.

So, what is going on here?  If I took these new polls individually, without paying attention to the other, I would tend to dismiss them as outliers.  Especially the New Hampshire one since it is done by a non-standard polling firm, in this case the University of New Hampshire.  However, one should note about new Hampshire that, in the polls before Obama clenched the nomination, he was ahead by 5% and 3%.

Does this mean that the two polls from June just showed an Obama nomination bounce of 6% to 9%, a bounce which has since receded?  Possibly.  We’ll need another poll to confirm whether this is the case or not.

The situation is not so clear in Maine, where Obama has never led by less than 10%.  Of course, a lead of 8% could just be float within the margin of error, and it still makes Maine a pretty safe state, but it is possibly telling that two states bordering each other both show sudden drops in polling at the same time.  It could be real movement, or it could just be a fluke of coincidental outlier polls.  We’ll only find out when new polls for those states come out.

This also marks a weakness, though an acceptable one from my point of view, in my methodology, that a poll a month old is worth as much in a state with 20 polls as it does in a state with 3 polls.  If I don’t want a poll from 30 days ago to overly influence a set of newer polls if there are a lot of new polls, then why would I want it to influence the polls if there is only one new poll?  That’s part of the idea.  The calculations do best when there are more polls, and if 2004 is any indication, we will start getting a lot more polls, especially after the convention.

The only other movement this week was within the Too Close To Call Category as Nevada flipped from lean McCain to lean Obama while Virginia flipped from lean Obama to lean McCain.  This resulted in a net gain of 8 electoral votes in the Count with Leaners for McCain, changing it to Obama 301, McCain 234, Tied 3.  Obviously Obama would still enjoy the fact that he has over 300 electoral votes.

In the end, the official count for this week is Obama 280, McCain 154, Too Close To Call, 104.  As I noted, this marks the first time a candidate has gotten over the 270 mark, this marks the largest lead for any candidate, as Obama takes a 126 electoral vote lead, and it also has the fewest number of outstanding electoral votes so far, at 104.

Historical Graph

The Historical Graph will be back next week (yay!)

Polling Wish List

Finally, my polling wish list for this week is:

• Delaware (3rd week) – Weak Obama, no poll for 144 days
• Idaho (2nd week) – Strong McCain, no poll for 144 days
• Indiana – Too Close To Call, no poll for 28 days
• New Mexico – Weak Obama, no poll for 32
• West Virginia – Weak McCain, no poll for 50 days

On Deck: Florida, Maryland, Mississippi, Montana, Pennsylvania

States which haven’t had a new poll in over a month:

DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Maryland, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming.

Sister states

These are states for each candidate where the margin in those states are within 1% of each other and are within 3 total electoral votes or 33% of electoral votes of the smaller state of each other.

• Colorado (Obama, 9 EVs, +3.9%) and Missouri (McCain, 11 EVs, +4.3%)
• Montana (Obama, 3 EVs, +4.8%) and South Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +4.2%)
• New Mexico (Obama, 5 EVs, +5.3%) and South Carolina (McCain, 8 EVs, +6.2%)
• Ohio (Obama, 20 EVs, +6.4%) and Georgia (McCain, 15 EVs, +6.1%)
• Michigan (Obama, 17 EVs, +6.6%) and Georgia (McCain, 15 EVs, +6.1%)
• Iowa (Obama, 7 EV,s +8.8%) and South Carolina (McCain, 8 EVs, +8.9%)
• Iowa (Obama, 7 EVs, +8.8%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Delaware (Obama, 3 EVs, +9%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Oregon (Obama, 7 EVs, +8.4%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Oregon (Obama, 7 EVs, +8.4%) and Arizona (McCain, 10 EVs, +9.4%)
• Maine (Obama, 4 EVs, +9.8%) and Alaska (McCain, 3 EVs, +8.9%)
• Maine (Obama, 4 EVs, +9.8%) and Arkansas (McCain, 6 EVs, +10.5%)
• Wisconsin (Obama, 10 EVs, 10.3%) and Arizona (McCain, 10 EVs, +9.4%)
• Minnesota (Obama, 10 EVs, +15.2%) and Oklahoma (McCain, 7 EVs, +14.8%)
• Minnesota (Obama, 10 EVs, +15.2%) and Tennessee (McCain, 11 EVs, +15.2%)

Electoral-vote.com Map

July 22, 2004: Kerry 332 (+80), Bush 195 (-91), Tied 11 (+11)
Changes by election day: Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio, Tennessee (tied)

Today: Obama 312, McCain 199, Tied 27
Total with same EV shift as 2004: McCain 306, Obama 232 (all 27 tied go to McCain)

To see the current status, go to the Status of the Electoral College page.

Cross posted at Daily Kos

Status of the Electoral College: July 15

Here is the map for July 15th. Notes are below (click map for bigger version):

Methodology

Numbers:

• Official count: Obama 264, McCain 151, Too Close to Call 123
• Strong states only: Obama 189, McCain 73
• Weak states only: McCain 78, Obama 75
• Count with “leaners”: Obama 309, McCain 226, Tied 3

• Weeks until the Democratic Convention: 6 weeks
• Weeks until the Republican Convention: 7 weeks
• Weeks until Election Day: 16 weeks

All states with change of status (many of these are due to the change in methodology this week):

• Arizona (from Strong McCain to Weak McCain)
• Arkansas (from Weak McCain to Strong McCain)
• Iowa (from Too Close to Call to Weak Obama)
• Montana (from Weak Obama to Too Close To Call)
• New Jersey (from Strong Obama to Weak Obama)
• New Mexico (from Too Close to Call to Weak Obama)
• North Dakota (from Weak McCain to Too Close To Call)
• South Dakota (from Strong McCain to Too Close To Call)

All states with new polling this week:

• Colorado – new poll for July 10th
• Illinois – new poll for July 8th
• Iowa – new poll for July 10th
• Louisiana – new poll for July 9th
• Michigan – new poll for July 10th
• Minnesota – new poll for July 10th
• Missouri – new polls for July 2nd-5th, July 7th, and July 7th-10th
• New Jersey – new poll for July 7th
• North Dakota – new poll for July 8th
• South Dakota – new poll for July 9th
• Washington – new poll for July 9th
• Wisconsin – new poll for July 8th

Also, see the spreadsheet.

This Week’s Notes

Just to note if you didn’t see it yesterday, I changed my methodology this week.  To read how, see here.

On the polling front, we had two significant polls this week from North and South Dakota.  On the heels of the poll showing Obama with a 5% lead in Montana last week, we get polls this week showing Obama and McCain tied in North Dakota and with McCain with only a 4% lead in South Dakota.  Both of those polls put those states in the Too Close To Call category.

Other polls which changed the status of states this week include a new Rasmussen poll showing New Jersey’s lead down to 5%, bumping that state from Strong Obama to Weak Obama.  Also, another Rasmussen poll showed Obama with a 10% lead in Iowa, moving that state from Too Close To Call to Weak Obama.

Other than that, we saw polls reaffirming a small Obama lead in Colorado, though not enough to push the state into his count, a new poll reaffirming Louisiana as a Strong McCain state, polls showing Obama holding strong leads in Michigan, Minnesota, Washington, and Wisconsin, as well as three new polls in Missouri showing mixed results.

States that changed status due to the methodology change include Arizona, dropping from Strong McCain to Weak McCain, Arkansas, which rises from Weak McCain to Strong McCain, Montana, which moves from Weak Obama to Too Close To Call, and New Mexico, which moves from Too Close To Call to Weak Obama.  I should note that Iowa also moved from Too Close To Call to Weak Obama even before the new poll, but the new poll would have moved Iowa to Weak Obama even without the change in methodology.

Given the new methodology, it’s difficult to compare to past week’s results, but the pro-Obama polling trend seems to continue as  Obama is now within 6 electoral votes of getting the 270 he needs – and that’s not even including Too Close To Call states that lean his way.  Obama now holds a 113 Electoral Vote margin on McCain in Weak and Strong states.

However, McCain actually gains in the count with leaners due to Indiana moving from lean Obama to lean McCain after the methodology switch, moving the count with leaners to 309 for Obama to 226 for McCain with 3 tied.

Once again we see the continued trend of Blue states becoming bluer (with the exception of New Jersey) and red states becoming less red (with the exception of Louisiana) with Iowa moving to Weak Obama with or without the methodology change and with North and South Dakota both moving to Too Close To Call.

Obama has fewer “lean” states and Electoral Votes in play, with 4 states and 45 Electoral Votes vs. McCain’s 7 states and 75 Electoral Votes.  The two candidates are about equal in the number of “weak” Electoral Votes, with Obama holding 7 states and 75 Electoral Votes in that category while McCain has 6 states and 78 Electoral Votes.  It is still the “strong” states where Obama is running McCain off the map, leading 189 Electoral Votes to 73.  McCain is now down to only 11 strong states and only 1 state,  Utah, where he leads by more than 20%.

Historical Graph

I’m temporarily stopping the historical graph since it isn’t really fair to compare this week to past weeks. In a couple weeks I’ll put it back when we have a few weeks of the new methodology under our belt.

Polling Wish List

Finally, my polling wish list for this week is:

• Delaware (2nd week) – Weak Obama, no poll for 138 days
• Alaska – Too Close To Call, no polls for 29 days
• Idaho – Strong McCain, no poll for 138 days
• Nevada – Too Close To Call, no poll for 27 days
• Ohio – Too Close To Call, no poll for 23 days

On Deck: Maryland, New Mexico, Oregon, South Carolina, West Virginia.

States which haven’t had a new poll in over a month:

DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Maryland, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming.

Sister states

These are states for each candidate where the margin in those states are within 1% of each other and are within 3 total electoral votes or 33% of electoral votes of the smaller state of each other.

• Virginia (Obama, 13 EVs, +1.1%) and Indiana (McCain, 11 EVs, +0.8%)
• Colorado (Obama, 9 EVs, +3.9%) and Missouri (McCain, 11 EVs, +4.3%)
• Montana (Obama, 3 EVs, +4.8%) and South Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +4.2%)
• Ohio (Obama, 20 EVs, +4.5%) and North Carolina (McCain, 15 EVs, +4.1%)
• Michigan (Obama, 17 EVs, +6.6%) and Georgia (McCain, 15 EVs, +6.1%)
• Iowa (Obama, 7 EV,s +8.8%) and South Carolina (McCain, 8 EVs, +8.9%)
• Iowa (Obama, 7 EVs, +8.8%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• Delaware (Obama, 3 EVs, +9%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
• New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +10.1%) and Arkansas (McCain, 6 EVs, +10.7%)
• Wisconsin (Obama, 10 EVs, 10.3%) and Arizona (McCain, 10 EVs, +9.4%)
• Minnesota (Obama, 10 EVs, +15.2%) and Oklahoma (McCain, 7 EVs, +14.8%)
• Minnesota (Obama, 10 EVs, +15.2%) and Tennessee (McCain, 11 EVs, +15.2%)

Electoral-vote.com Map

July 15, 2004: Kerry 322 (+70), Bush 205 (-81), Tied 11 (+11)
Changes by election day: Florida, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio, Tennessee (tied)

Today: Obama 320, McCain 204, Tied 14
Total with same EV shift as 2004: McCain 288, Obama 250 (all 14 tied go to McCain)

To see the current status, go to the Status of the Electoral College page.